Impacts of AI · Site 07 of 08 · Government · The Fine Print

$90Billion

The US federal government spends $90 billion a year on technology, and 75% of it goes to maintaining legacy systems before a dollar reaches the modernisation AI is meant to bring.

Mehr, Harvard Ash Center, 2025

Single-source
Scroll · footage plays as you go

The staff is leaving

Fully one-third of the Social Security Administration's workforce of nearly 22,000 was expected to retire by 2022, while citizens ask for more digital government.

Mehr, Harvard Ash Center, 2025

The service moved online

Where one AI platform ran social insurance, 71% of requests were filed online, against 28% before it, and individual tasks took about 93 seconds to process.

Zheng et al. (AAAI/IAAI), 2025

Nobody can audit it

21 experts in AI, policy and disinformation rated technical deepfake detection the least effective defence, at about 3.4 out of 7.

Loth, Kappes & Pahl (ACM WWW), 2026

01 / What the spending buys

Service reaches people

Participation, faster casework, self-service and translation: what government AI delivers when it works.

Q1 · Civic platforms
500%
Rise in participatory-budget turnout on a digital platform

São Paulo's Participe+ platform lifted participation in the city's citizen budget from 2,097 people in 2019 to 12,354 in 2020, a 500% increase.

Sousa et al., 2025

Single-source
Q2 · Service delivery
2.92M
Social-insurance cases served with 37.5% of the staff

After a year in three Chinese cities, the SmartHS platform served 2.92 million social-insurance cases with only 37.5% of the original front-desk staff, and cut residents' travel by 20.6%.

Zheng et al. (AAAI/IAAI), 2025

Peer-reviewed
Q3 · Self-service
65%
Of citizen questions a city chatbot can answer directly

IBM Watson's MySurrey app in British Columbia answers 65 percent of the questions that already have answers on city websites, after studying over 3,000 documents on 16 services.

IBM case, cited in Mehr, Harvard Ash Center, 2025

Company-reported
Q4 · Public appetite
92%
Of citizens who say better digital services would change their view

Only 27% of US citizens were satisfied with government digital services, but 92% said improved digital services would positively change their view of government.

Accenture survey, cited in Mehr, Harvard Ash Center, 2025

Company-reported
Q5 · Language access
14
Languages served by a crowd-plus-machine translation service

Unbabel combines crowdsourcing and machine learning to translate into 14 languages, cited as a model for translating government information.

Mehr, Harvard Ash Center, 2025

Company-reported
01 / 05
A queue at a community centre
Q6 · Internal operations
30%
Of 250 EU public-sector AI cases used for internal management

Of 250 real AI use cases across European public administrations, 76 (30%) were used to streamline internal management and administrative procedures.

van Noordt & Misuraca, Government Information Quarterly, 2025

Peer-reviewed
Q7 · Sovereign service
98%
Out-of-domain questions a public-service AI correctly declined

A sovereign public-services assistant built on an open 70B model correctly declined 98% of out-of-domain questions rather than inventing answers.

Branco et al., 2026

Single-source
Q8 · Participation
7,000+
Cities worldwide with participatory budgeting

Participatory budgeting, recognised by the UN as a democratic-governance best practice, had spread to more than 7,000 cities by the 2020s.

Sousa et al., 2025

Single-source
No verified statistic

No verified figure exists for how much of a measured turnout lift lasts into the next cycle. The available panels stop at twelve months, and longer projections were excluded rather than extrapolated.

No verified statistic

We could not establish what a digital-service gain costs per resident. Agencies do not report AI spend at that grain, and vendor breakdowns cannot be joined to public budgets.

02 / Emerging and unsettled

The newest money is the least measured

Synthetic campaign content, compute with no owner, uneven participation and machines checking facts.

Q9 · Synthetic creative
8.4%
AI images in top political meme accounts, against 5.2% overall
Share of posts, 2024 US election, Instagram
  1. Memes, top accounts27.6%
  2. Memes, all users10%
  3. AI images, top accounts8.4%
  4. AI images, all users5.2%

Among the 139 most influential political accounts on Instagram in the 2024 US election, memes were 27.6% of content and AI-generated images about 8.4%, against 10% and 5.2% across all users.

Chang et al., 2024

Single-source
Q10 · Untraceable
$360bn
Data-centre investment across 775 non-US sites
36% of value with no identified operator

A review of 775 non-US data centres covered $360 billion of investment; 36% of that value had no identifiable operator at all.

Richardson et al. (RAND), 2026

Single-source
Q8 · Who decides spending
Of Brazilian cities used participatory budgeting, early 2000s
140Brazilian municipalities with participatory budgets, early 2000s
2.5%Of all Brazilian cities at that point
~½Of Brazil's 250 largest cities two decades later
5–15%Of municipal budgets handed to citizen choice

Participatory budgeting spread unevenly: by the early 2000s, about 140 Brazilian municipalities had it; two decades on, nearly half of the 250 largest cities did, handing citizens 5–15% of budgets.

Sousa et al., 2025

Single-source
Q11 · Incidents
61%
Of 2025 public AI incidents classified as misuse

Of AI incidents logged in the public AI Incident Database from May to November 2025, 61% were misuse, 27% unreliable or hallucinated outputs and 5% supply-chain compromises.

Huwyler, 2025

Single-source
Q12 · Fact-checking
70%agreement
Agreement between ChatGPT and human fact-checkers

Asked to classify more than 20,000 previously fact-checked claims, ChatGPT agreed with human raters about 70% of the time: plausibility, not proof.

Summerfield et al., 2024

Single-source
No verified statistic

No verified figure exists for political advertising bought through resellers outside the disclosing platforms. Every published number is a modelled estimate.

No verified statistic

The share of synthetic political content that was labelled as such cannot be established: most platforms carry no machine-readable label field.

03 / What the spending costs

The same tools narrow the field

Risky vendors, synthetic images, a few superspreaders and surveillance inside democracies.

Q13 · Vendor risk
$200M
Pentagon contract ceiling for xAI, days after a public incident

xAI's Grok won a Pentagon contract worth up to $200 million in the same week the chatbot posted antisemitic content, calling itself “MechaHitler”, that the company had to remove.

Newsweek, 2025

Single-source
Q14 · Synthetic share
12%
Of 2024 US election images shared on X that were AI-generated

In a large X dataset on the 2024 US presidential election, about 12% of shared images were AI-generated.

Chen, Ye, Tsai, Ferrara & Luceri, 2025

Single-source
Q15 · Concentration
10→80%
Of users who shared 80% of the AI-generated images

Around 10% of users were responsible for sharing 80% of the AI-generated images: a small group of superspreaders drives synthetic politics.

Chen, Ye, Tsai, Ferrara & Luceri, 2025

Single-source
Q16 · Surveillance
13
UK police forces running live facial-recognition vans

Real-time facial-recognition vans are used by 13 local UK police departments, one of several AI surveillance systems now operating inside democracies.

Sania et al., 2026

Single-source
01 / 04
Banknotes
Q10 · No owner
53%
Of 775 non-US data-centre projects with no identified operator

53% of the projects reviewed, and 48% of AI projects, had no identified operator: compute that shapes policy, owned by no one the public can name.

Richardson et al. (RAND), 2026

Single-source
Q17 · Paper trail
407
Federal grant notices that fund AI, found by reading them

Reading notices of funding opportunity directly, researchers found 407 grant opportunities that fund AI or encourage grantees to use it, more than aggregate reporting suggests.

Bateyko & Levy (ACM FAccT), 2025

Peer-reviewed
Q18 · Regulation
0
Federal regulations of AI vendors in the US

In the absence of federal regulation of AI vendors, procurement remains one of the few levers governments have to push for safety, non-discrimination, privacy and accountability.

Johnson, Silva & Heidari, TechPolicy.Press, 2025

Single-source
04 / What cannot be measured

The gaps are not accidents

A twelvefold savings range, plans that skip the money and incidents nobody reports.

Q19 · Savings
$3.3–41.1bn
Estimated yearly value of automating federal work

Automating federal employees' tasks could save between 96.7 million and 1.2 billion hours a year, worth $3.3 billion to $41.1 billion: a twelvefold spread that shows how little is settled.

Deloitte, cited in Mehr, Harvard Ash Center, 2025

Company-reported
Q20 · Oversight
2 of 22
Agency AI-compliance plans that mention grants at all

Reviewing 22 federal agency plans for complying with White House AI guidance, researchers found only two mentions of grants or financial assistance, though agencies fund AI through grants.

01020304050607080910111213141516171819202122
Mentions grantsDoes notAgencies anonymised; positions illustrative

Bateyko & Levy (ACM FAccT), 2025

Peer-reviewed
Q21 · Under-reported
5%
Of public AI incidents were supply-chain compromises

Supply-chain compromises were 5% of logged incidents, and bias and drift barely appear at all, likely because they are internal failures that are rarely disclosed.

Huwyler, 2025

Single-source
Q22 · Threat rating
6.1/7
Expert threat rating for AI-generated text

Experts rated AI-generated text a 6.1 out of 7 threat, a systemic risk that pollutes everyday discourse; deepfake video scored 6.4 but is more readily debunked.

Loth, Kappes & Pahl (ACM WWW), 2026

Single-source
Q23 · Research focus
6,000
Of 220,000+ AI studies address governance or regulation

Of more than 220,000 AI studies in Web of Science, about 6,000 concern governance or regulation, and 558 relate to the EU AI Act's categories.

Kim et al. (IEEE), 2025

Peer-reviewed
05 / CodaNo statistics in this section

Chamber. Line. Count.

Chamber
Line
Count
06 / Closing

What would you need to know?

Both sides of this page are sourced to the same standard: every figure names its origin and its confidence, and where no verified number exists the page says so. If the missing records were published tomorrow, which of these numbers would you expect to move?

Sources · 16 documentsFrom the LearnHaus government corpus
  1. 01AI for Citizen Services and GovernmentMehr, Harvard Ash Center · Academic Research Publication / Institutional Whitepaper · 2025 · cited for Q0, Q3, Q4, Q5, Q19, Opening
  2. 02Generative AI as a catalyst for democratic Innovation: Enhancing citizen engagement in participatory budgetingSousa et al. · arXiv / Cornell University · 2025 · cited for Q1, Q8
  3. 03SmartHS_ An AI Platform for Improving Government Service ProvisionZheng et al. (AAAI/IAAI) · Academic Research Publication / Institutional Whitepaper · 2025 · cited for Q2, Opening
  4. 04Artificial intelligence for the public sector_ results of landscaping the use of AI in government across the European Unionvan Noordt & Misuraca, Government Information Quarterly · Elsevier · 2025 · cited for Q6
  5. 05Sovereign AI-based Public Services are Viable and AffordableBranco et al. · arXiv / Cornell University · 2026 · cited for Q7
  6. 06The Meme Is the Message: Generative Memesis and AI Visuals in the 2024 USA Presidential ElectionsChang et al. · arXiv / Cornell University · 2024 · cited for Q9
  7. 07How Sovereign Is Sovereign Compute A Review of 775 Non-U.S. Data CentersRichardson et al. (RAND) · Academic Research Publication / Institutional Whitepaper · 2026 · cited for Q10
  8. 08Standardized Threat Taxonomy for AI Security, Governance, and Regulatory ComplianceHuwyler · arXiv / Cornell University · 2025 · cited for Q11, Q21
  9. 09How will advanced AI systems impact democracySummerfield et al. · Academic Research Publication / Institutional Whitepaper · 2024 · cited for Q12
  10. 10Elon Musk's Controversial Grok AI Lands Contract With Pentagon - NewsweekNewsweek · Academic Research Publication / Institutional Whitepaper · 2025 · cited for Q13
  11. 11Synthetic Politics: Prevalence, Spreaders, and Emotional Reception of AI-Generated Political Images on XChen, Ye, Tsai, Ferrara & Luceri · ACM · 2025 · cited for Q14, Q15
  12. 12From Democracies to Autocracies: How AI Systems Enable Authoritarianism by DesignSania et al. · arXiv / Cornell University · 2026 · cited for Q16
  13. 13One Bad NOFO? AI Governance in Federal GrantmakingBateyko & Levy (ACM FAccT) · ACM · 2025 · cited for Q17, Q20
  14. 14Want Accountable AI in Government? Start with Procurement | TechPolicy.PressJohnson, Silva & Heidari, TechPolicy.Press · Academic Research Publication / Institutional Whitepaper · 2025 · cited for Q18
  15. 15The Verification Crisis: Expert Perceptions of GenAI Disinformation and the Case for Reproducible ProvenanceLoth, Kappes & Pahl (ACM WWW) · ACM · 2026 · cited for Q22, Opening
  16. 16AI Governance in the Context of the EU AI Act A Bibliometric and Literature Review ApproachKim et al. (IEEE) · IEEE · 2025 · cited for Q23

The Deloitte, Accenture and IBM figures come via Mehr's Harvard Ash Center paper, as it cites them.